Dexter Cup sends soph-colts off to powerful, perplexing start

Posted by Frank Cotolo on Friday, June 22, 2012 5:53 PM
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(H) denotes Hambletonian Eligible  

On May 5 at Freehold Raceway, the $138,000 Dexter Cup presents a cast of glamour-boy soph trotters that appears more contentious than recent years.

Even though Market Share (H-Revenue S) takes his undefeated status into the first fray along the Hambletonian Trail, there is much to be said for the launching of the three-year-old season of Southwind Austin (H-Conway Hall) and Frost Bites K (Broadway Hall) has already started this year with three wins in four starts. Both received byes and did not race in last week’s elim, which was won by Market Share.

Also a contender is Not Afraid (H-SJ’s Caviar). Although he skipped at the wire and was nosed out of the place by Trouble, a non-eligible also in this field, he has promise in the long-run battle for a berth in the August classic.

Bettors are stuck with a focus on the toteboard to find some value here and must put a lot of faith in some strong possibilities if they are going to get a price.

Market Share, no doubt, will try to take the field around the four turns but how easily he does it depends upon what happens in the early stages of the race. We have to assume that the other foes will not be ready to let Market Share have a gift of this mile and may challenge him early.

Not Afraid, Frost Bites K and Southwind Austin may be the foils and unless Market Share has an alternative style yet to be determined, he could be toast early accepting any major challenge from this trio.

Putting the quartet in a shuffling duel or two will only help Trouble put on the gas late, as he did in the elim. But I feel we need to go with the best of the rest, if, indeed, Market Share is the best.  

That’s why we are looking at Andy and Julie Miller’s Frost Bites K as the colt that could be the value and the most strategic choice. If he has one big brush he could win this and may do so at bargain odds.

For exotic value, we will use Not Afraid in the mix with Southwind Austin, using the scenario that Market Share gets burned from pushing the lead.

Get to TwinSpires for wagering all of the great races leading to the Hambletonian and “Oaks” and read all the result stories at Hambletonian Society’s exclusive “trail” section.

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